Working papers and pre-prints

“Evaluating estimation methods for wildfire smoke and their implications for assessing health effects” [June 2024] (Minghao Qiu, Makoto Kelp, Sam Heft-Neal, Xiaomeng Jin, Carlos Gould, Daniel Tong, Marshall Burke). EarthArxiv preprint

“Large indirect economic impacts of tropical cyclones shaped by disaster response” [May 2024] (Christopher Callahan, Jane Baldwin, Renzhi Jing, Marshall Burke, Noah Diffenbaugh). EarthArxiv preprint

“Improved daily PM2.5 estimates in India reveal inequalities in recent enhancement of air quality.” [Apr 2024] (Ayako Kawano, Makoto Kelp, Minghao Qiu, Kirat Singh, Eeshan Chaturvedi, Ines Azevedo, Marshall Burke). EarthArxiv preprint

“Mortality burden from wildfire smoke under future climate change" [Mar 2024] (Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Renzhi Jing, Makoto Kelp, Marissa Childs, Jeff Wen, Yuanyu Xie, Meiyun Lin, Mathew Kiang, Sam Heft-Neal, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke). NBER working paper 32307

“Temperature extremes impact morbidity and mortality differently” [Mar 2024] (Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Alexandra Heaney, Eran Bendavid, Christopher Callahan, Mathew Kiang, Joshua Graff Zivin, Marshall Burke). NBER Working Paper 32195

"Quantifying climate change loss and damage consistent with a social cost of greenhouse gases" [Sep 2023] (Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Noah Diffenbaugh, Sol Hsiang), NBER Working Paper 31658

“The effect of flood exposure on insurance adoption among US households” [Sep 2023] (June Choi, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke)

"Game, sweat, match: temperature and elite worker productivity" [Sep 2023] (Marshall Burke, Vincent Tanutama, Sam Heft-Neal, Miyuki Hino, David Lobell), NBER Working Paper 31650

"Productivity dispersion and persistence among the world's most numerous firms" [April 2020] (Casey Maue, Kyle Emerick, Marshall Burke), NBER Working Paper 26924

"Climatic constraints on aggregate economic output." [May 2019] (Vincent Tanutama and Marshall Burke), NBER Working paper 25779

Peer-reviewed publications

Carlos F. Gould, Lissete Dávila, M. Lorena Bejarano, Marshall Burke, Darby W. Jack, Samuel B. Schlesinger, José R. Mora, Alfredo Valarezo. 2024. “Exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine Particulate Matter When Cooking with Electricity Compared to Gas: a Randomized Crossover Study in Quito, Ecuador”. Environmental Health Perspectives, 123(1) 2024.

Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Jeff Wen, Marshall Burke. 2023. “A table is worth a thousand pictures: Multi-modal contrastive learning in house burning classification in wildfire events”. NeurIPS ‘23 Computational Sustainability Workshop

Jeff Wen, Sam Heft-Neal, Patrick Baylis, Judd Boomhower, Marshall Burke. 2023. “Quantifying fire-specific smoke severity”. PNAS 120(51), 2023

Marshall Burke, Marissa Childs, Brandon de la Cuesta, Minghao Qiu, Jessica Li, Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Michael Wara. 2023. The contribution of wildfire to PM2.5 trends in the US. Nature, 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06522-6 [replication data] [research briefing]

Carlos Gould, Sam Heft-Neal, Mary Prunicki, Juan Antonio Aguilera-Mendoza, Marshall Burke, Kari Nadeau. 2023 “Health effects of wildfires.” Annual Review of Medicine, 75:19.

Sam Heft-Neal, Carlos F. Gould, Marissa Childs, Matt Kiang, Kari Nadeau, Mark Duggan, Eran Bendavid, Marshall Burke. 2023. Emergency department visits respond non-linearly to wildfires smoke, PNAS 120(39), 2023

Carlos Gould, Alfredo Valarezo, Samuel Schlesinger, Darby W. Jack, M. Lorena Bejarano, Brandon De la Cuesta, Marshall Burke. 2023. “Climate and health benefits of a transition from gas to electric cooking”, PNAS 120(34), 2023. [Data and code]

Minghao Qiu, Nathan Ratledge, Ines Azevedo, Noah Diffenbaugh, Marshall Burke. 2023. “Drought impacts on the electricity system, emissions, and air quality in the western US” PNAS 120(28), 2023. [Data and code]

Hemant Pullabhotla, Mustafa Zahid, Sam Heft-Neal, Vaibhav Rathi, Marshall Burke. 2023. “Global biomass fires and infant mortality” PNAS 120(23), 2023. [Data and code]

Nathan Ratledge, Gabe Cadamuro, Brandon de la Questa, Matthieu Stigler, and Marshall Burke. 2022 "Using satellite imagery and machine learning to estimate the livelihood impact of electricity access", Nature. [Data and code]

Jeff Wen and Marshall Burke. 2022. “Wildfire smoke exposure worsens learning outcomes”, Nature Sustainability. [Data and code]

Marissa Childs, Jessica Li, Jeff Wen, Sam Heft-Neal, Anne Driscoll, Sherrie Wang, Carlos Gould, Minghao Qiu, Jen Burney, Marshall Burke. 2022. "Daily local-level estimates of ambient wildfire smoke PM2.5 for the contiguous US", Environmental Science and Technology, 2022 [Data and code]

Jen Burney, Geeta Persad, Jon Proctor, Eran Bendavid, Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal. 2022. Geographically resolved social cost of anthropogenic emissions accounting for both direct and climate-mediated effects, Science Advances 8(38), 2022.

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Jessica Li, Anne Driscoll, Patrick Baylis, Matthieu Stigler, Joakim Weill, Jennifer Burney, Jeff Wen, Marissa Childs, Carlos Gould. 2022. "Exposures and behavioral responses to wildfire smoke". Nature Human Behavior, 2022 [formerly NBER Working Paper 29380] [Some media coverage: SF Chronicle, NBC, NBC]

Sam Heft-Neal, Anne Driscoll, Wei Yang, Gary Shaw, and Marshall Burke. 2022. Associations between wildfire smoke exposure during pregnancy and risk of preterm birth in California. Environmental Research, 2022. [Some media coverage: NYTimes, The Guardian, The Hill]

David JX Gonzalez, Christina K Francis, Gary M Shaw, Mark R Cullen, Michael Baiocchi, Marshall Burke. 2022. "Upstream oil and gas production and ambient air pollution in California". Science of the Total Environment 806(1), 2022.

Jeff Wen and Marshall Burke. Wildfire smoke plume segmentation using geostationary satellite imagery. ICML 2021.

Noah Diffenbaugh, Frances Davenport, and Marshall Burke. 2021. Historical warming has increased US crop insurance losses. Environmental Research Letters, 2021.

David Lobell, Stefania Di Tommaso, Marshall Burke, and Talip Kilic. 2021. Twice Is Nice: The Benefits of Two Ground Measures for Evaluating the Accuracy of Satellite-Based Sustainability Estimates. Remote Sensing, 2021.

Miyuki Hino and Marshall Burke. 2021. The effect of information about climate risk on property values. PNAS 118(17), 2021. [replication data]

Jihyeon Lee, Nina Brooks, Fahim Tajwar, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon, David Lobell, Debashish Biswas, and Steve Luby. 2021. Scalable deep learning to identify brick kilns and aid regulatory capacity. PNAS 118(17), 2021. [replication data]

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, David Lobell, and Stefano Ermon. 2021. Using satellite imagery to understand and promote sustainable development. Science 371(6535). [replication data]

Marshall Burke, Anne Driscoll, Sam Heft-Neal, Jenny Xue, Jen Burney, and Michael Wara. 2021.  The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the US. PNAS 118(2), 2021 [Some media coverage:  Economist, Economist again, NYTimes, AP, SFChronicle, Guardian, LATimes, KQED]  [replication data]

Frances Davenport, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh. 2021.  Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages.  PNAS 118(4), 2021. [replication data]

Jihyeon Lee, Dylan Grosz, Sicheng Zeng, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. Predicting Livelihood Indicators from Crowdsourced Street Level Images. AAAI-21. To appear in Proc. 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021.

Kumar Ayush, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon.  Efficient Poverty Mapping from High Resolution Remote Sensing Images. AAAI-21. To appear in Proc. 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2021.

Sam Heft-Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, Kara Voss, and Marshall Burke. 2020. Dust pollution from the Sahara and African infant mortality. Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-0562-1[replication data]

Chris Yeh, Anthony Perez, George Azzari, Anne Driscoll, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon, and Marshall Burke. 2020. Using publicly available satellite imagery and deep learning to understand economic wellbeing in Africa. Nature Communications 2020(11), 2583.  [supplementary information] [replication data] [Q&A with King Center] [Economist]

Gonzalez, David J.X., Allison R. Sherris, Wei Yang, David K. Stevenson, Amy M. Padula, Michael Baiocchi, Marshall Burke, Mark R. Cullen, and Gary M. Shaw (2020). Oil and gas production and spontaneous preterm birth in the San Joaquin Valley, CA: A case-control study. Environmental Epidemiology.

Eoin McGuirk and Marshall Burke.  2020. The economic origins of conflict in Africa.  Journal of Political Economy 128(10), 2020. [previously NBER Working Paper w23056]. [earlier blog post] [replication data]

Kumar Ayush, Burak Uzkent, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, and Stefano Ermon. 2020. "Generating interpretable poverty maps using object detection in satellite images", IJCAI-20. To appear in Proc. 29th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence.   

David Lobell,  StefaniaDi Tommaso, Calum You, Ismael Yacoubou Djima, Marshall Burke, and Talip Kilic. 2020. Sight for Sorghums: Comparisons of Satellite- and Ground-Based Sorghum Yield Estimates in Mali. Remote Sensing 12(1), 100. 

Frances Davenport, Julio Herrera-Estrada, Marshall Burke, and Noah Diffenbaugh. 2020. Flood size increases nonlinearly across the western United States in response to lower snow-precipitation ratios. Water Resources Research, 10.1029/2019WR025571

Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Ties Boerma, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid. 2019. "Women and children living in areas of armed conflict in Africa: a geospatial analysis of mortality and orphanhood", Lancet Global Health 7(12), 2019.

Ceren Baysan, Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2019. "Economic and non-economic factors in violence: evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico". Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 168, 434-452. [replication data]

David Lobell, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Sydney Gourlay, Zhenong Jin, Talip Kilic, Siobhan Murray. 2019. "Eyes in the sky, boots on the ground: assessing satellite- and ground-based approaches to crop yield measurement and analysis". American Journal of Agricultural Economics, doi: 10.1093/ajae/aaz051 [replication data]

Noah Diffenbaugh and Marshall Burke. 2019. "Global warming has increased global economic inequality", PNAS, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116 [some coverage: NYTimes, Science, Boston Globe, MIT Tech Review] [PNAS podcast] [NPR/Living on Earth]

Katherine Mach, Caroline Kraan, et al. 2019. "Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict", Nature. (14 author team)

Marshall Burke, Lauren Bergquist, and Ted Miguel. 2019. "Sell low and buy high: arbitrage and local price effects in Kenyan markets". Quarterly Journal of Economics. [Coverage: NYTimes] [older version] [replication data]

Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Matthew Tan, Burak Uzkent, Neal Jean, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon. “Predicting Economic Development using Geolocated Wikipedia Articles” [PDF]. KDD-19. To appear in Proc. 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2019.

Rose Rustowicz, Robin Cheong, Lijing Wang, Stefano Ermon, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2019. "Semantic segmentation of crop type in Africa: A novel dataset and analysis of deep learning methods", CVPR '19.

Burak Uzkent, Evan Sheehan, Chenlin Meng, Zhongyi Tang, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon. "Learning to Interpret Satellite Images using Wikipedia" [PDF]. IJCAI-19. To appear in Proc. 28th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2019.

Wenjie Hu, Jay Harshadbhai Patel, Zoe-Alanah Robert, Paul Novosad, Samuel Asher, Zhongyi Tang, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2019. “Mapping Missing Population in Rural India: A Deep Learning Approach with Satellite Imagery”. To appear in Proc. 1st AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society (AIES 2019). [PDF]

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Calum You, Stefania Di Tommaso, Stephen Aston, Marshall Burke, and David Lobell. 2019. "Smallholder maize area and yield mapping at national scales with Google Earth Engine.", Remote Sensing of Environment, 228, 115-128.

Zach Wagner, Sam Heft-Neal, Bob Black, Zulfi Bhutta, Marshall Burke, and Eran Bendavid. 2018. "Armed conflict and child mortality". Lancet 392, 857-865.

Jon Proctor, Sol Hsiang, Jen Burney, Marshall Burke, and Wolfram Schlenker. 2018. "Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions". Nature 560, 480-483. [paper] [replication code]

Marshall Burke, Felipe Gonzalez, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu, and Sol Hsiang, 2018. "Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico", Nature Climate Change 8,723-729. [paper] [replication code] [some press: The Atlantic, CNN, Time, Guardian, Scientific American, Nature, Dallas Morning News] [Comment by Matthew Gammans, and our response]

Sam Heft Neal, Jen Burney, Eran Bendavid, and Marshall Burke. 2018. "Robust relationship between air quality and infant mortality in Africa", Nature 559, 254–258 [paper] [Nature News and Views by Lance Waller] [replication code] [video explaining the research]

Marshall Burke, Matt Davis, Noah Diffenbaugh. 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets", Nature, 557, 549-553 [paper] [Nature News and Views by Wolfram Schlenker and Max Auffhammer] [replication code] [some press: NYT, Guardian, Nature, LA Times, Axios] [op-ed in The Hill]

Chris Weyant, Margaret L Brandeau, Marshall Burke, David B Lobell, Eran Bendavid, Sanjay Basu. 2018. "Anticipated burden and mitigation of carbon-dioxide-induced nutritional deficiencies and related diseases: A simulation modeling study". PLOS Medicine

Barak Oshri, Annie Hu, Peter Adelson, Xiao Chen, Pascaline Dupas, Jeremy Weinstein, Marshall Burke, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2018. "Infrastructure Quality Assessment in Africa using Satellite Imagery and Deep Learning". KDD-18. To appear in Proc. 24th ACM SIGKDD Conference, 2018. [Arxiv]

Zhenong Jin, George Azzari, Marshall Burke, Step Aston, David Lobell. 2017. Mapping and explaining smallholder yield heterogeneity in Eastern Africa. Remote Sensing, 9(9).

Marshall Burke* and David Lobell*. 2017. "Satellite-based assessment of yield variation and its determinants in smallholder African systems". PNAS. [blog post] [earlier blog post] (*denotes equal authorship) [video explaining research] [Coverage: Science]

Sam Heft-Neal, David Lobell, and Marshall Burke. 2017. "Using remotely sensed temperature to estimate climate response functions". Environmental Research Letters, 12(1) 014013.

Marshall Burke, Sam Heft-Neal, Eran Bendavid. 2016. "Understanding variation in child mortality across Sub-Saharan Africa". Lancet Global Health, Oct 2016. [project website, with interactive visualizations and data downloads] [commentary by Zulfiqar Bhutta]

Neal Jean*, Marshall Burke*, Michael Xie, Matt Davis, David Lobell, Stefano Ermon. 2016. "Combining machine learning and satellite imagery to predict poverty". Science, 353(6301), 790-794. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda, and lots of others. 2016. "Opportunities for advances in climate change economics". Science.

    • Related longer-form version, published in Climate Change Economics, 2016 (with Melanie Craxton, Charlie Kolstad, Chikara Onda)

Marshall Burke and Kyle Emerick. 2016. "Adaptation to climate change: Evidence from US agriculture". American Economic Journal -Economic Policy, 8(3), 106-140. [Replication data (~60mb)] [AEA coverage]

Tamma Carleton, Sol Hsiang, and Marshall Burke. 2016 "Conflict in a changing climate". European Physical Journal. [blog post by Tamma]

Marshall Burke*, Sol Hsiang*, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production." Nature. (*denotes equal authorship)

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Ted Miguel, and Shanker Satyanath. 2015. "Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts". Review of Economics and Statistics. [Replication data]

Marshall Burke, Sol Hsiang, and Ted Miguel. 2015. "Climate and conflict", Annual Review of Economics. [Coverage: Washington Post, VICE, Grist, Grist again]

Marshall Burke, Erick Gong, and Kelly Jones. 2015. "Income shocks and HIV in Africa". Economic Journal [Replication data]